Cocoa supplies are not currently disrupted by Ivorian unrest, according to the latest official data, calming the nerves of cocoa traders. Cocoa output is still getting through the Ivory Coast’s ports or is being smuggled through Ghana for subsequent export via other West African ports. However, if democratically-elected president Alassane Ouattara succeeds in fully implementing the export ban this would have an immediate impact on cocoa futures. Recently, Outtara said he would extend the ban on cocoa exports, if Laurent Gbagbo did not step down by the time the ban expires on 23 February, reported the Financial Times.

In a joint statement, the Federation of Cocoa Commerce (FCC) and the European cocoa association (ECA) said: “If no cocoa is exported from Côte d’Ivoire, it will only be a question of time before consuming countries run out of stocks.”

According to experts a full implementation of the export ban would significantly reduce end-of-season stocks and prompt an immediate surge in cocoa commodity prices.

According to local official deliveries data released on 4 February, Ivory Coast shippers and cocoa processors declared 80,415 metric tonnes of cocoa for export from 21 January to 3 February taking the cumulative total for the 2010/2011 season to 653,719 tonnes.

However, the FCC and ECA reported that the difficulties in Ivory Coast had national, regional and international consequences. According to the associations, shipping services have almost completely ceased due to measures prohibiting payments to port authorities. This has inhibited both export of products such as cocoa.

The FCC and ECA also reported “serious disruption” to gas and energy supplies in the region, which is forcing temporary closure of cocoa processing facilities “thus threatening the quality of existing cocoa stocks”.

The associations said that cocoa smuggling was “placing the short, medium and long term future of the cocoa chain at risk and seriously threatens successful sustainability partnerships patiently built over the years with a large number of farmers communities”.